By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU
Consumer inflation rate slowed to 25 percent in April 2024, down from 25.8 percent the previous month, according to new data released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).
However, analysts warn that prevailing upside risks could moderate the pace of disinflation in the coming months.
“We expect disinflation to resume from April 2024, but the prevailing upside risks to inflation could moderate the pace of disinflation in the coming months,” GCB Capital cautioned in an earlier outlook. It cited lingering petroleum price pressures, with Brent crude potentially headed toward US$100 per barrel, as a key risk factor.
GCB Capital added that “the resultant increases in ex-pump petroleum prices, possible upward adjustment to transport fares, and their second-round effects represent a significant risk to the inflation outlook.”
Another market observer, Apakan Securities, echoed those concerns, stating: “The upward adjustment in ex-pump petroleum prices in recent pricing windows heralds a key risk to the outlook. The potential increase in transport fares and the second-round effects on related commodities pose a key risk”.
While the national inflation rate slowed in April, the figures showed a contrast between food and non-food prices. Non-food inflation eased from 29.6 percent to 26.8 percent, but food inflation increased from 22.6 percent to 23.5 percent.
“The rate of 26.8 percent recorded for food inflation is the lowest in the last 13 months,” explained Government Statistician Professor Samuel Kobina Annim while revealing the new data.
“From a food and non-food perspective, food inflation dominated with 2.1 percent, 0.6 percentage points higher than non-food inflation of 1.5 percent,” Prof. Annim stated.
Regional disparities remained stark, with the Upper East Region’s 42.5 percent rate nearly quadrupling the 11.3 percent figure in Greater Accra – the lowest nationally.
Inflation for locally-produced items continued to surge ahead of imported inflation at 25.7 percent versus 23.5 percent respectively. Month-on-month inflation jumped from 0.8 percent in March to 1.8 percent in April.
He highlighted bottled water and tomatoes as two items recording massive annual price hikes of 49.1 percent and 46 percent respectively in April, despite their significant weights in the consumption basket.
The data identified 144 items with inflation exceeding the 25 percent national level, with imported non-food items making up nearly 9 percent of that number.
Regional disparities remained stark, with the Upper East Region’s 42.5 percent rate nearly quadrupling the 11.3 percent figure in Greater Accra – the lowest nationally.
Looking at year-on-year trends across Ghana’s 16 regions, only two saw inflation decelerate compared to April 2023 levels. The Western North Region recorded the biggest slowdown at 47.2 percentage points.
Inflation for locally-produced items continued to surge ahead of imported inflation at 25.7 percent versus 23.5 percent respectively. Month-on-month inflation jumped from 0.8 percent in March to 1.8 percent in April.
“We always need to keep our eye on the drivers, which we always emphasise,” Prof. Annim advised in analysing the latest inflation figures. “The weights are important, the relative price changes that have occurred over a particular point in time.”
