IES predict stability in fuel pricing for 2nd half of May


The price of fuel at the pumps is expected to stabilize for the next pricing-window of the month of May 2020, attributable to some marginal changes recorded on the crude oil and foreign exchange markets, forecast from the Institute for Energy Security (IES) has shown.

According to the energy industry watch, the 5.31 percent and 17.96 percent appreciation in prices of crude oil and gasoline, and the fact that gasoil tumbled by 8.14 percent on the international market, underpins their prediction.

It particularly noted that the “expected stability in prices of fuels at the pump, takes into account the local currency’s marginal depreciation against the U.S. dollar.”

Research & Policy Analyst, at IES, Raymond Nuworkpor, in statement noted that data collated at their Economic Desk from the Foreign Exchange market shows the Cedi depreciated by 0.89 percent against the major trading currency for oil.

“It traded at an average price of GH¢5.68 to the Dollar over the period, a departure from the GH¢5.63 recorded in the second pricing window of April, 2020.”

The IES in their review of the ‘First Pricing-Window’ of the month observed that some major Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) kept their prices downward in line with their prior prediction.

It said for instance, while Goil, Shell (Vivo), Petrosol, Puma and Total Ghana trimmed their prices to sell at an average per-litre price of GH¢4.09 for gasoil and GH¢4.11 for gasoline, few other OMCs moved their prices below the GH¢4.00 per litre mark, to produce a national average price of GH¢4.01 for gasoline and GH¢4.03 for gasoil.

Notwithstanding this some marketers, according to IES market-scan, like Santol Energy, Benab Oil, Nick Petroleum, Champion, Cash Oil, and Zen Petroleum dropped their prices further down for trading.

Among the developments leading to this, on the international market, was the Brent crude price which remained largely above the US$25 per barrel mark for the first pricing-window.

“Over the period, Brent Oil hit US$30 a barrel for the first time since April 15. This positive gain can be attributed to the easing of restrictions in economic activities around the world, as well as reaction to the start of production cuts.”

The IES said it was at the back of this that Brent crude appreciated by 5.31 percent from US$25.98 per barrel recorded at the end of the second pricing-window of April to close at US$27.36 per barrel on average terms at end of the first pricing-window in May 2020.

However, it observed that the S&P’s Platts benchmark for fuels shows average gasoline price gained 17.96 percent to close at US$202.85 per metric tonne, from a previous average of US$171.97 per metric tonne.

Meanwhile, gasoil declined by 8.14 percent to close trading at US$215.88 per metric tonne, from a previous average of US$235.00 per metric tonne.

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