By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU and Ebenezer Chike Adjei NJOKU
Speculation of a looming cedi-depreciation due to the upcoming US$349million Eurobond interest payment in July may be far-fetched as the development poses no threat to the nation’s foreign exchange (FX) stability, a source close to the matter has asserted.
Concerns have mounted that the payment, coupled with ongoing geopolitical developments, could see the cedi lose gains made over recent months.
The local unit has appreciated by 43 percent against major trading currencies between beginning of the year to mid-June 2025.
In response to recent commentary warning of an impending “FX storm”, the source stated that those concerns are exaggerated and misaligned with Ghana’s present macroeconomic conditions.
According to the source, a Eurobond payment scheduled for July 3, 2025, has already been factored into BoG liquidity and FX management frameworks.
“There is no risk of market disruption. Ghana’s reserves as of June 2025 stand at over US$11billion, equivalent to five months of import cover. These buffers have been built strategically, not by accident,” he explained.
The bank expects FX conditions in July to improve with confirmed inflows totalling at least US$730million. These include US$370million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), contingent on Executive Board approval of the current support programme’s fifth tranche on July 7 and an additional US$360million from the World Bank’s Development Policy Operation, expected by mid-month.
“These inflows will more than offset the Eurobond outflow, ensuring reserve levels remain comfortable and that there is no liquidity vacuum in the FX market,” he stated.
Inflows from the BoG’s Gold-for-Reserves (Goldbod) programme act as further support for the cedi. The programme, launched to diversify FX sources by leveraging domestic gold purchases, has contributed significantly to the nation’s external position – especially amid high global gold prices.
The country posted a trade surplus of US$4.14billion in the first four months of 2025 – five times the surplus recorded for same period 2024. The current account recorded a surplus of US$2.12billion in the first quarter.
“These are not ‘cosmetic’ numbers. They reflect real activity, grounded in sustained policy reforms, external credibility and improving investor sentiment,” the source noted.
While some analysts have attributed the cedi’s appreciation against major trading currencies to artificial support, the BoG official cited four structural factors: tight monetary policy anchored by a 28 percent benchmark interest rate, improved FX supply from exports and gold purchases, fiscal consolidation and stronger investor confidence, buoyed by the recent credit rating upgrade.
Though acknowledging that external risks remain, including potential declines in gold prices and possible remittance headwinds due to a proposed 5 percent U.S. tax on outward transfers, the bank argued that institutional resilience has improved markedly.
“The FX market is better regulated today, with stricter enforcement of pricing, transparency and transactional discipline,” he noted.
Calls for a fixed exchange rate regime have been dismissed, suggesting they are inconsistent with Ghana’s inflation-targetting framework. He maintained that BoG’s flexible exchange rate policy remains the most appropriate approach in an uncertain global environment.
“Pegging at this stage would be not only inconsistent with our policy framework but also risky in a world where flexibility is the best shock-absorber,” he said.
It is expected that July will not expose weaknesses in Ghana’s FX structure but rather demonstrate the central bank’s preparedness to meet obligations without destabilising the market.
“More broadly, the narrative around Ghana is changing from one of crisis to one of cautious but credible stabilisation,” he said.
“This is not merely due to external support. It is the outcome of difficult domestic decisions, consistent coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities and a renewed commitment to transparency and investor engagement,” he added.
Inflation, at 18.4 percent in June 2025, continues on a downward trajectory while interest rates, though high, are expected to ease as inflation moderates.
“There is no FX storm expected in July. There is a calm backed by reserves, policy discipline and credible inflows expected,” the source insisted.
