- China cuts key rates as weak batch of July data darkens outlook
- Barclays cuts China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%
- Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade some US banks – CNBC
- Coming up: API data on U.S. crude stocks at 4:30 p.m. EDT
Oil prices fell about 2% on Tuesday on sluggish Chinese economic data coupled with fears that Beijing’s unexpected cut in key policy rates was not sufficiently substantial to rejuvenate the country’s sputtering post-pandemic recovery.
Brent crude futures fell $1.60, or 1.9%, to $84.61 a barrel by 1:33 p.m EDT (1733 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.83, or 2.2% to $80.68.
Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, have helped to galvanise a rally in prices over the past seven weeks.
However, China’s industrial output and retail sales data on Tuesday showed the economy slowed further last month, intensifying pressure on already faltering growth and prompting authorities to cut key policy rates to bolster economic activity.
When the oil market appears to be comfortable, it is often the case that China is the number one fire douser, throwing a wet blanket over those dreaming of prices north of $90, said John Evans of oil broker PVM. China is the world’s biggest oil importer
China’s central bank lowered interest rates marginally after the data that highlighted intensifying pressure on the economy, mainly from the property sector, though analysts say the cut was too small to make a meaningful difference.
There are concerns China could struggle to meet its growth target of about 5% for the year without more fiscal stimulus.
On Tuesday Barclays cut its forecast for China’s 2023 growth in gross domestic product to 4.5%, citing a faster than expected deterioration in the housing market.
Also adding to risk-off sentiment, an analyst at Fitch Ratings warned that U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), could be downgraded if the agency further cuts its assessment of the operating environment for the industry, according to a report from CNBC on Tuesday.
“When the banking sector is shaky, oil gets shakier because it is so sensitive to interest rates, loans and the general health of the economy,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
On a brighter note, refinery throughput in China rose in July 17.4% from a year earlier as refiners kept output elevated to meet demand for domestic summer travel and to cash in on high regional profit margins by exporting fuel.
Investors are now awaiting data on U.S. crude inventories. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 11.