“It is more telling that the ‘whistle-blower’ has lied to you for decades; misled you; fed you poisoned foods; poisoned your water-bodies; killed your leaders and sabotaged your economies”
Every great power is a threat to smaller and weaker nations. The Washington-led narrative about China in Africa is quite clear: “China is a threat to Africa. The infrastructure cash-bonanza is part of the bait to lead Africa into a debt-trap…China is following the tried and tested old methodology of colonisation with a bit of finesse this time”. There is a conditional truth to this statement, though. Yet if one pauses for a moment to analyse Africa-China relations, it is obvious that China poses the same duality of effects that all ‘great’ powers do: They can be good or bad depending on the nation; geopolitical conditions; regional and global economic dynamics; and time.
It is quite plausible that the shouts about “debt-trap…. new colonisation” and similar claims sum up to Washington using a genuine fear as bait to continue using Africa as one of its pawns in its geopolitical arm-wrestling with China, as with Russia, to preserve its waning hegemony on the global stage.
Is China’s inroads in Africa a new era and version of the ‘Scramble for Africa’? Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not. When you are hungry to the point of starvation and someone offers you food, even if it will last only for a week, this lofty question is somehow secondary. Conveniently, if someone comes in and says the food being offered to you is a trap, what would you – a starving man – do? It is more telling that the ‘whistle-blower’ has lied to you for decades; misled you; fed you poisoned foods; poisoned your water-bodies; killed your leaders and sabotaged your economies. Would you listen to him? This is the African’s situation. There is no doubt Africa is saying “Survival first…your power struggles with China is not our war”.
Between 2013 and 2021, China’s contribution to global economic growth was 38.6% – far exceeding the 25.7% of the entire G7 countries: the United States; Germany; Japan; United Kingdom; Italy; Canada and France. China has built the largest industrial base in history. It has the most far-reaching and complete supply-chain in the world today. Part of Africa is aware that this industrial and economic juggernaut is now nearly unstoppable. It has reached a point where it is more economically beneficial to align with its industrial mechanics than ignore or fight it. Sadly, others are tied down by their exploitative and intrusive colonial ties.
For example, China’s economic muscle – The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – has locked in 147 countries. Its political muscle – BRICS – has founded The New Development Bank, backed by gold and natural resources of founding members, with rumours of launching their own currency. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, it has over forty nations either as members or applying to be members. These countries include Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria. Germany is rumoured to have applied for membership. France is also rumoured to be angling for membership, having asked President Ramaphosa for an invitation to attend the next BRICS nations meeting scheduled for August.
There is no doubt this China-Russia axis is the new Empire. What kind of Empire will it be to Africa? Will ‘The Empire’s’ wealth create be a Commonwealth? It is within our power to determine.
For the past two decades, Africa has benefitted from Chinese investments. Chinese private sector-led investments in Africa now stand at US$155billion[2]– covering nearly twenty-five sectors such as industrial parks, medical and health, transport and logistics, infrastructure, trade and e-commerce, agricultural processing, legal and commercial sectors, mining and manufacturing sectors.[3] Private sector employment from these investments stands at nearly 1.7 million in both direct and indirect jobs.
Furthermore, direct BRI infrastructure investments in Africa stand at US$145billion.[4] According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) to Africa grew at an average compound rate of 18% per year from 2004 to 2016[5] – and now stands at US$43billion.[6] Financing for Chinese-contracted projects has also been increasing, and peaked in 2015 at US$55billion.
By mid-2017, more than ten thousand Chinese-owned companies[7] were operating in Africa. The largest companies by value are state-owned enterprises, which dominate in the energy, transportation and resource sectors. Indeed, since 2010 a third of Africa’s power grid and infrastructure has been financed and constructed by Chinese state-owned companies. The magnitude of loans from China to African countries surpasses the amount of FDI investment by at least 3 to 4 times[8]. Should this imbalance be a worry to Africa?
Trade with Africa in 2022 stood at US$282billion and China’s exports to Africa were US$164.49billion according to Chinese Customs authorities, while imports reached US$117.51billion. From January 1 to April 30, 2023, exports from China to Africa rose by 26.9% year-on-year, to stand at US$58.9billion.[9] These are impressive numbers for Africa, and simply cannot be ignored for any reason.
President Akinwumi’s enthusiastic appreciation of these investment as quoted by the China-Africa Business Council was not out of place when he observed that: “African businesses are partnering more Chinese companies….with over-400 African businesses from 40 countries participating in the China International Export event during the past three exhibitions”. He further noted that “Chinese firms of all sizes and sectors are bringing capital investment, management know-how, entrepreneurial energy and drive to every corner of the continent. In so doing, they are helping to accelerate the progress of Africa’s economies”.
His immediate caution that “Africa needs quality and environmentally sustainable investments which will build local supply chains and upgrade the skills of its youth, and well-trained populations in addition to socially responsible investing that empowers rather than disempowers communities” suggests a hint of reservation that should not be taken lightly.
Is China really a threat to Africa? In the short-term, maybe ‘No’. Chinese investments are opening up sectors and creating jobs. Their infrastructure funding has opened up road and rail networks across the continent, facilitating the movement of goods and persons. In the medium-term, maybe ‘Yes’. In the long-term, it is hard to say. We will only know from medium-term actions of the economic and soft power they are now building up. Economic-wise, it will most likely be ‘China first – the rest of the world second’.
An area of concern, albeit a complex one, is the debt portfolio – which has become unsustainable. Did China corrupt some Africa leaders and push loans to them, knowing that indigenous economic activities could not generate enough revenue to retire the debt when due? Not long ago, I came across a video of a Kenyan politician who claimed that before loans could be finalised, hard cash by the planeload was flown in by Beijing to blindfold some Kenyan political leaders. Hard to prove. Even though the politician may not get the evidence to back his claim, he might have the story right.
Since 2018, many African countries have defaulted or become strained. Zambia was among the first to go; Ethiopia has to renegotiate its loans; Kenya is clearly showing signs of strain and may possibly default; Ghana has defaulted embarrassingly, forcing it to cede control of revenue from its natural resources and energy sector for over a decade.
Can we blame China for these defaults? There are clear signs of aggressiveness in the actions of Beijing. This may be the traditional aggressiveness emerging powers usually display. Does this aggressiveness make Beijing the bad guy? For now, China is simply a lender and exporter – finding its rightful place on the global stage. Whether we were induced to borrow beyond our ability to pay for the purposes of entrapment is a matter of ethics not economics. Today, as China is set to reap from the economic benefits of its loan investments, Africa is saddled with loans it cannot pay.
China has not built the largest industrial base and most complete supply chain in history for nothing. These point to one clear intent: it intends to be a net exporter of finished goods.
In November 2022, the first salvo might have been fired in Tanzania with the new super-port at Bagnumoyo – which has the capacity to handle 20 million containers per year. This is larger than Rotterdam or any port in Europe. This is no doubt China’s gateway to the landlocked and resource rich countries in East Africa and parts of Central Africa[10]with a population of over 300 million. This region is Africa’s resources-jewel.
Should we therefore pause and take a look at our relationship with China? My honest answer is ‘No’ – because it is not a matter of ‘switching on and off’. The reality is too complicated. We are too deep and far in the game. We have only one practical offer on the table: The China-Russia axis.
The crimes and sins of the West against Africa are too many: from the assassination of Presidents and Leaders, coup d’états, economic sabotage by economic hit-men, IMF-World Bank shock and awe economic programmes which have contributed to the continent impoverishment, the scorched-earth destruction of Libya, the genocide of nearly twelve million Congolese by Belgium – among many others over the past two centuries at the hands of America and Europe – have left wounds too deep to recover from or ignore.
On the other hand, the odds are not good on the economic front. Europe is debt- ridden [11] as well as in a self-destruction mode over the Ukrainian war. America, in a gracious retreat, is growing the not-so-new mentality of ‘America First’.
Africa needs funding for infrastructure and other economic goals for which it neither has the hard funds nor is able to secure them from elsewhere. The African Development Bank suggests that the continent’s infrastructure needs amount to US$130–170billion a year, with a financing gap in the range of US$68–US$108billion.[12] Which country has such surplus funds on the global stage? These are issues which cannot be easily ignored. Thus, we have only Russia, China and ourselves – exogenous events and factors notwithstanding.
My view is that China will a gracious development partner to nations led by lions, but a threat to nations led by donkeys. They suffer no fools; carry no prisoners and do not make it their business to put your house in order for you. This should not have been a worry to Africa. After all, in the words of Dr. Nkrumah: “The African is capable of managing his own affairs” – but the reality is traumatic.
Furthermore, the Chinese ‘promise’ is quite straightforward: Economic development and ‘shared prosperity’ that does not demand ‘social or political change’.
China is a threat to the continent if we do not approach it with well thought-out local needs and solutions to address our industrial and supply-chain goals. The economic benefits of transportation networks is never in doubt. It is not enough to just build roads, railways and ports. These transportation systems must serve locally-based industrial nodes, transporting human capital and raw materials to these industrial hubs and moving finished or value-added goods for export – not only to China but also other African nations. Transportation infrastructure should have one simple rule: raw materials to industrial hubs in Africa, and value-added or finished goods to market centres across the world.
Some of our kingdoms slept in the late 19th century, others collaborated – and worst, others did nothing when 1884 was happening in Berlin (the General Act was signed in February 1885). We should not make a similar mistake. If Africa has chosen the China-Russia axis, it is very much in the right direction. We were pawns in the Anglo-American-European hegemony. We have an opportunity to help the China-Russia axis in building a new paradigm – a new world with multi-polar power centres – and be a shareholder in that new world order and the wealth it creates.
What can we do now? China’s foothold in the geographic Golden Triangle – Egypt-Nigeria-South Africa – is set to be complete when Egypt is formally admitted into the BRICS. The triangle covers thirty-one nations with a population a little over one billion, which constitutes over 72% of the continent’s population. It includes Africa’s largest and most developed economies, Nigeria and South Africa respectively, and largest mineral resources deposits and markets. Literally, it is the heart of the continent.
Africa must design and begin to implement a unified industrial (manufacturing) plan to improve our trade and economic dynamics and competitiveness. Whether we buy into the BRI or we are in bilateral economic deals with China, we must align our industrial interests on a regional basis to create a continent-wide industrial grid. Our individual states will not win the game. We must win by crafting home-grown solutions and lead the process to implement solutions. Our true independence lies in economic and industrial freedom.
We need this Africa-China partnership to work to our economic and cultural benefit. It will become an instrument for prosperity if Africa positions itself as an industrial partner exporting semi-finished or value-added products in a unified national, regional and continental industrial super-grid rather than being an exporter of raw materials. This is the most reliable way Africa can benefit from the new era. Failure would be like the Anglo-America-Europa exploitation – a kind of déjà vu.
Will China prop-up corrupt leaders, undermine regional or national industrial ambitions in order to maintain and nourish the status quo of unfettered access to Africa’s natural resources – or stay out of the way for the continent to pursue its industrial ambitions on our terms? These are genuine but somehow romantic questions for tomorrow as we find our place in the Russia/China-led BRICS axis.
As for the debate that China sees Africa as ripe for colonisation, with loans and infrastructure funding as modern tools, those are issues for another day. The issues of today are the questions of our identity; continent-born ideas for manufacturing and value-addition-led economies which take into consideration our culture, value systems, economic history, costs and effects of capital; and what individual regional blocks wish to achieve for themselves. Every African block should chart its own development course and be prepared to sacrifice and face the challenges of its ambitions. China should be a partner when it suits the country’s grand interest as much as any other nation, whether in Africa or elsewhere.
The writer is an author || educationist
Email: [email protected]
Cell: +233-209830546
[1] Reviving the Silk Road which connected eat and west by trade and exchange of knowledge, secured and expanded by Mongol peace; Pax Mongolica.
[2] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt-and-Road/China-s-Africa-Belt-and-Road-investment-drops-as-West-spends-more#:~:text=higher%2Dyielding%20areas.-,China%20continues%20to%20be%20one%20of%20the%20major%20financiers%20of,contacts%20with%20several%20African%20nations.
[3] http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33529
[4] There are other bilateral infrastructure debts unrelated to the BRI.
[5] https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/chinese-economic-engagement-in-africa/
[6] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1259604/chinese-fdi-stock-to-africa-by-country/#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20the%20stock,three%20billion%20U.S.%20dollars%2C%20respectively
[7] There has been lingering questions on the quality of the businesses and their practices but that is not the centre of this paper.
[8] https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/chinese-economic-engagement-in-africa/
[9] https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1805-44547-china-africa-trade-value-up-by-8-9-in-the-first-four-months-of-2023-yoy#:~:text=Trade%20between%20China%20and%20Africa,to%20stand%20at%20%2458.9%20billion.
[10] Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Zambia, Uganda, South Sudan, Malawi, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, DR Congo
[11] Italy and Spain, $1trillion each owed to Germany, France and Britain; Greece, $367 billion; Ireland $865bllion; Germany, France and Britain economies weakened because Italy, Spain and other European economies debts to them.
[12]https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/2018AEO/African_Economic_Outlook_2018_-_EN_Chapter3.pdf
