In a few days, the Minister of Finance or a representative from the ministry will present the budget statement for the 2022 financial year to the Parliament of Ghana.
For many Ghanaians, however, the budget-reading has become a mere ritual; and as a result they are either indifferent or hostile toward it. However, the significance of a budget and the impact it has on livelihoods of citizens are good reasons for every Ghanaian to take an active interest in.
The budget, as will be read in the days ahead, is the key instrument for executing government economic policies and programmes. It is a projection of government’s expenditures and revenues for the ensuing fiscal year, and it informs the public as to how government plans to run the economy. But, most importantly, the budget signals the overall health of the country’s economy and outlook of impacts from economic policies and programmes.
The context for the 2022 budget is well established and appreciated by all Ghanaians. The pandemic’s impact on livelihoods and the economy will linger in the short- to medium-term, despite the over GH¢19billion spent on mitigating interventions.
The 2022 budget will therefore have a difficult task of dealing with the high debt level, widening fiscal deficit, and how growth will be financed at a modest cost. It is also expected that government will take the required steps to achieve fiscal consolidation at a pace which balances risks and growth.
One of the critical stimulating initiatives that has been emphasised most ahead of the budget reading is the country’s digitalisation agenda and moves to digitise all aspects of the Ghanaian economy. After some years of embarking on this digitalisation drive, the country must begin to have conversations about its impact and demonstrate the real gains across all sectors.
Conversations about how digitalisation is improving productivity, how the improved national identification and address systems will facilitate growth of credit to the private sector, and how our tax net is widening are some of the important considerations. These will ensure that the exact impact of digitalisation on the country’s economic growth can be quantified to validate the motivation for further investments.
The financial sector will continue to be a key anchor in driving economic success. It must remain liquid and well-capitalised to support growth of the private sector. It is expected that the extent to which the country’s fiscal deficit is financed from domestic sources will be limited to ensure more funding access to the private sector – which is in fact the engine of growth for Ghana’s economy.
Over the last two years, the fiscal deficits were financed largely from domestic sources – that is, over 70% net domestic financing. It is therefore not surprising that bank’s holdings of government instruments have increased by over 60%.
Government could also consider lessening the impact of further levies – currently at 10% of operating profits – on the finance industry in a bid to improve the available liquidity pools to fund private sector growth initiatives. This should be done while encouraging the central bank to maintain monetary stimulus responses, as the true size of non-performing exposures mostly crystallise post downturn.
The task ahead is daunting, and it is unclear what further levers are available for government to return the economy to its pre-pandemic growth rate of 6-8% per annum. Now more than ever, a more collaborative approach of all key stakeholders and an effective execution of agreed policies and programmes present the only logical response. Managers of the economy must be agile in making the required resource trade-off decisions, but achieve a broad-based support for revised policies and programmes.
>>>The writer is Head, Strategy and Enablement at Stanbic Bank
