In an era noticeable by swift developments in automation and artificial intelligence, new research evaluates the jobs lost and jobs gained under different scenarios through 2030.
The work of some human will be replaced in this technology –driven world we find ourselves. We are privy to a world now where some vehicles are manufactured to drive themselves. With just a click of a button and set of programming, we are able to read and process transactions responding to customer-service needs and wants; a clear indication of automation at play. The use of these and many more technology driven tools and systems will eventual cause the replacement of most jobs as these activities can be performed now by machines.
The technology-driven world in which we live is a world filled with promises but also challenges; a development that is sparking much public concern globally. Automation and the new world of work where the powerful new technologies are increasing productivity, improving lives, and reshaping our world will have some effects on our jobs.
Building on the McKinsey Global Institute’s latest report, assesses the number and types of jobs that might be created under different scenarios through 2030 and compares that to the jobs that could be lost to automation. The results reveal a rich variety of potential shifts in occupations in the years ahead, with important implications for workforce skills and wages. The key finding was that while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to 2030 under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging—matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.
We previously found that about half the activities people are paid to do globally could theoretically be automated using currently demonstrated technologies. For instance in Ghana, the work of a bank teller can be replaced by machines. At the health facilities as demonstrated recently during this corona-virus pandemic that robots were seen taking temperature and managing the out –patient department (OPD) initial registration exercise. This could be slow paced but will eventually happen. Very few occupations—less than 5 percent—consist of activities that can be fully automated. However, in about 60 percent of occupations, at least one-third of the constituent activities could be automated, implying substantial workplace transformations and changes for all workers. While technical feasibility of automation is important, it is not the only factor that will influence the pace and extent of automation adoption. Other factors include the cost of developing and deploying automation solutions for specific uses in the workplace, the labor-market dynamics, the benefits of automation beyond labor substitution, and regulatory and social acceptance.
Taking these factors into account, new research estimates that between almost zero and 30 percent of the hours worked globally could be automated by 2030, depending on the speed of adoption according to the Mckinsey report.
The potential impact of automation on employment varies by occupation and sector. Activities most prone to automation include physical ones in predictable environments, such as operating machinery and preparing fast food. Collecting and processing data are two other categories of activities that increasingly can be done better and faster with machines. Typically, some governments sectors could be affected to include, paralegal work, accounting, and back-office transaction processing and data entry jobs.
It is important to note, however, that even when some tasks are automated, employment in those occupations may not decline but rather workers may perform new tasks. Join this zoom online training to learn more to prepare.
Automation will have a lesser effect on jobs that involve managing people, applying expertise, and social interactions, where machines are unable to match human performance for now.
Jobs in unpredictable environments—occupations such as gardeners, plumbers, or providers of child- and eldercare—will also generally see less automation by 2030, because they are technically difficult to automate and often command relatively lower wages, which makes automation a less attractive business proposition. There are possible scenarios for employment growth; Workers displaced by automation are easily identified, while new jobs that are created indirectly from technology are less visible and spread across different sectors and geographies. There will be rising incomes and consumption, especially in emerging economies
The report previously estimated that global consumption could grow by $23 trillion between by 2030, and most of this will come from the consuming classes in emerging economies. The effects of these new consumers will be felt not just in the countries where the income is generated but also in economies that export to these countries. Globally, the report estimate that 250 million to 280 million new jobs could be created from the impact of rising incomes on consumer goods alone, with up to an additional 50 million to 85 million jobs generated from higher health and education spending.
With the aging populations; the report has it that by 2030, there will be at least 300 million more people aged 65 years and older than there were in 2014. As people age, their spending patterns shift, and there will be a pronounced increase in spending on healthcare and other personal services. This will create significant new demand for a range of occupations, including doctors, nurses, and health technicians but also home-health aides, personal-care aides, and nursing assistants in many countries. Globally, the report estimate that healthcare and related jobs from aging could grow by 50 million to 85 million by 2030.
With development and deployment of technology; jobs related to developing and deploying new technologies may also grow. Overall spending on technology could increase by more than 50 percent between 2015 and 2030. About half would be on information-technology services, a situation demonstrated recently with the high increase for data related needs for several virtual meetings globally now. The number of people employed in these occupations is small compared to those in healthcare or construction, but they are high-wage occupations. By 2030, the report has it that, this trend could create 20 million to 50 million jobs globally.
With investments in infrastructure and buildings for instance; infrastructure and buildings are two areas of historic underspending that may create significant additional labor demand if action is taken to bridge infrastructure gaps and overcome housing shortages especially for Ghana in sub-Saharan Africa where housing deficits are a going concern for most citizens. New demand could be created for up to 80 million jobs in the trendline scenario and, in the event of accelerated investment, up to 200 million more in the step-up scenario. These jobs include architects, engineers, electricians, carpenters, and other skilled tradespeople, as well as construction workers.
Taking a closer look at investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate adaptation. Investments in renewable energy, such as wind and solar; energy-efficiency technologies; and adaptation and mitigation of climate change may create new demand for workers in a range of occupations, including manufacturing, construction, and installation. These investments could create up to ten million new jobs in the trendline scenario and up to ten million additional jobs globally in the step-up scenario.
Today there is a growing concern about whether there will be enough jobs for workers, given potential automation. History would suggest that such fears may be unfounded: over time, labor markets adjust to changes in demand for workers from technological disruptions, although at times with depressed real wages.
A larger challenge will be ensuring that workers have the skills and support needed to transition to new jobs. Countries that fail to manage this transition could see rising unemployment and depressed wages. Policy makers, business leaders, and individual workers all have constructive and important roles to play in smoothing workforce transitions ahead. History shows us that societies across the globe, when faced with enormous challenges, often rise to the occasion for the well-being of their citizens.
Many companies are finding it is in their self-interest—as well as part of their societal responsibility—to train and prepare workers for a new world of work. Let FoReal HR Services support your efforts. Individuals, too, will need to be prepared for a rapidly evolving future of work. Acquiring critical for their own well-being. There will be demand for human labor, but workers everywhere will need to rethink traditional notions of where they work, how they work, and what talents and capabilities they bring to that work. This virtual training with certificates offers you that benefit to prepare for the future.