By Pamela CARSLAKE
African economies are increasingly at risk of being casualties in the worsening trade war between the United States and China.
With China largely shut out of the U.S. market, at least for now, African exporters are fearful that will to a sharp downturn in demand for key resources.
Meantime, on the continent, new U.S. tariffs combined with the shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have dealt heavy blows to countries across the region that rely disproportionately on aid and trade.
While these are both concerning developments, the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China may also present strategic opportunities for African policymakers.
For instance, inflation triggered by heightened tariffs between the United States and China could create opportunities for African countries to position themselves as alternative suppliers of certain goods to these major markets.
These global shifts should prompt African leaders to take proactive steps toward building greater economic agency—particularly by diversifying trade partnerships and strengthening intra-African trade.
Recent events have also highlighted the degree to which many African economies depend on major powers—especially China—leaving them vulnerable when those partners face economic setbacks, suspend aid, or impose unfavorable trade measures.
In some countries, like Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Angola, China is the largest trading partner and their most important bilateral creditor. By taking concrete steps to diversify economic ties, African nations can reduce this dependency and better insulate themselves from geopolitical tensions and external economic shocks.
Key lessons for African policymakers
- Manufacturing – The U.S.-China trade dispute offers valuable insights for policymakers across Africa, particularly concerning the vital role of manufacturing. China’s ability to effectively counter U.S. tariffs is rooted in its powerful and extensive manufacturing sector. China’s massive export capacity—including in the U.S. market—gives it substantial strategic leverage in trade negotiations, a level of influence that most African economies currently lack. A key reason for this disparity is the underdevelopment of Africa’s manufacturing sector. Without a strong industrial base, many African countries remain heavily reliant on raw commodity exports, placing them at a comparative disadvantage in global trade and limiting their ability to shift toward export-led growth.
- Trade – The U.S.-China trade war also highlights the importance of avoiding over-reliance on a single country for imported goods. Undue dependence restricts a nation’s ability to navigate trade conflicts effectively. China is by far the largest trade partner for most African countries. But with the exception of just a few states, the trade relationship is highly uneven, with China selling far more than it buys in return. This is largely driven by China’s impressive manufacturing efficiency, which enables the mass production of low-cost products that are very appealing for price-sensitive consumers but also leads to enormous trade deficits. This dynamic presents another interesting paradox: while these imports increase access to affordable goods, they also undermine local industries by outcompeting domestic producers, stifling the growth of Africa’s own manufacturing base.
From Made in China to Made in Africa
The central question becomes how African countries can reduce dependence on Chinese goods, given China’s position as the dominant source of imports and the largest trade partner for most countries. The solution lies in building a new, more robust industrial base across the continent.
African countries must increase intra-continental trade, particularly through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). However, while the AfCFTA holds great promise, its vision of a unified African market remains largely aspirational. Persistent barriers and bottlenecks continue to restrict the free flow of goods.
Among the most pressing challenges are logistical issues—many parts of the continent lack the critical infrastructure needed for efficient trade, such as reliable roads, railways, and ports.
Effective implementation of the AfCFTA also requires the harmonization of regulatory frameworks, tax policies, and customs procedures across member states.
Such alignment is essential to create consistency in rules and standards, helping to eliminate the barriers that currently impede smooth cross-border trade. However, achieving this level of coordination remains a significant challenge among many member countries.
Furthermore, the challenge of product diversification needs to be addressed. African countries must do more to complement, not duplicate, their export offerings to minimize competition among countries selling the same commodities. Rwanda, after all, is not going to sell a lot of coffee to Uganda.
Urgent need for coordination
Without greater product diversification, intra-African trade risks being weakened by intensified regional competition.
The benefits of continental free trade are more likely to accrue to countries with differentiated products or a diversified export base, as these reduce direct competition and expand access to varied consumer markets.
Coordinated trade policy among AfCFTA member states is therefore crucial for developing export strategies that respond to specific market needs across the continent.
This challenge underscores the urgent need for African countries to strengthen their domestic production capabilities, which remain largely underdeveloped.
Addressing regulatory barriers, enhancing regional cooperation to harmonise regulations and procedures as well as investments in key areas such as infrastructure and digitalisation will boost intra-African trade, and streamline trade processes for more efficiency.
The creation of a cohesive African market, facilitating both internal and external trade, underpinned by a strong manufacturing sector, will catalyse Africa’s economic transformation.
Tackling regulatory barriers, strengthening regional cooperation to harmonize rules and procedures, and investing in critical areas such as infrastructure and digitalization will significantly boost intra-African trade and streamline trade processes for more efficiency. This integrated approach is key to driving Africa’s long-term economic transformation.
Manage Chinese imports
African countries must strike a balance between managing the influx of Chinese imports and supporting the development of vibrant local production sectors. Protecting local artisans and manufacturers is essential for building resilient economies.
To this end, governments could implement targeted measures such as tariffs on selected imported goods to improve the price competitiveness of domestic products.
In addition to tariffs, non-tariff measures like import quotas could be used to limit the volume of certain foreign products in local markets. Governments might also provide direct support to local industries through subsidies, tax incentives, and financial assistance to boost their competitiveness.
These efforts could be further strengthened by campaigns that promote the consumption of locally made goods and by adopting broader strategic interventions to nurture homegrown industries.
Technology and skills transfer
When it comes to manufacturing partnerships with international players like China, African policymakers must revise and strengthen local investment laws to better support the development of the continent’s manufacturing sector—particularly through knowledge and skills transfer.
While many countries, including Ghana, have established legal frameworks to govern foreign investment and technology transfer, these laws typically do not require foreign firms to transfer skills or technology to local partners. Instead, they only mandate the registration of Technology Transfer Agreements (TTAs) if such agreements exist.
This is a largely voluntary and non-binding approach that limits the potential for capacity-building in African industries. Updating these legal frameworks to enforce meaningful technology and skills transfer would help build a more robust and competitive manufacturing base across the continent—positioning African countries to better engage in global markets.
The need for new markets
The U.S.-China trade war—and the broader trend of increased U.S. tariffs on global trade partners—has underscored the urgency for African countries to diversify their trade relationships and invest in building resilient manufacturing sectors.
Southeast Asia offers promising opportunities in this regard. Recent diplomatic engagements, such as the visits of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Burundian President Ndayishimiye to Vietnam to foster cooperation in key economic sectors, reflect a strategic shift toward exploring alternative partnerships for sustainable development.
This diversification is essential to avoid overdependence on any single global power and to open up new trade avenues that can buffer African economies against external shocks. The imposition of U.S. tariffs on African nations highlights the role of realpolitik in shaping international trade and reinforces the importance of safeguarding continental interests.
The U.S.-China dispute provides a critical lesson: countries with robust manufacturing capacity are better positioned to navigate global trade tensions. African leaders should draw on this insight to strengthen domestic industries and expand access to both regional and global markets.
>>>the writer is the Executive Director of the Afro-Sino Center for International Relations in Accra, Ghana
