By Gideon MANKRALO
Africa’s population is significantly youthful, with more than 60 percent of the population being under 25 years. Projections are that Africa’s youth population will reach 850 million youth by 2050 – and by 2063 young people will constitute half of the 2 billion working-age population.
However, data indicate that nearly half the youth population in Africa are currently unemployed or inactive and more than 80 million youths in sub-Saharan Africa live in extreme poverty. The ILO estimates that by 2030 about 25 million young persons aged 15–29 will enter the labour force searching for employment.
The World Bank (2023) reports that Africa needs to create 2 million jobs every month from 2023 – 2040 in order to address unemployment challenges facing the continent. In Ghana, like most African countries, the fundamental question engaging the minds of government functionaries and other key stakeholders has been: where and how will these jobs be created?
Nonetheless, aside from (youth) unemployment, the country totter from the effects of informality, gender inequity, irregular migration, low productivity and climate change. Experts have argued that the solution to addressing these challenges lies in resorting to structural transformation and a firm commitment to sustainable development.
We however note that while the country has in recent times undergone Structural Transformation and signed up to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this has only resulted in a growth of GDP without a correlating growth in employment. Some economists have linked this phenomenon to the divergence between macro-economic policies, sectoral and labour market policies due to a general lack of policy coherence. Others have pointed to issues like lack of skills (soft and hard skills) and skills-gap or mis-match.
Meanwhile, the Ghanaian economy remains an overwhelmingly raw materials exporting economy – stifled by huge public debts and undergoing an economic recovery programme under the IMF that requires it to widen its tax net to increase revenue in an economy that is 80% informal.
The COVID 19 pandemic effects still linger, leading to a rise in poverty levels since 2020. The World Bank, 2023, (Report No: PGD434) reported that Ghana was facing a severe macroeconomic crisis and considerable hardship, as pre-existing structural weaknesses have been exacerbated by exogenous shocks and policy slippages.
The report indicated that structural weaknesses including weak revenues, expenditure overruns and significant energy sector shortfalls were compounded by shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to over 800,000 Ghanaians being pushed into poverty.
The latest Afrobarometer Report (December 2024) indicates that driven by these economic challenges, the majority of Ghanaians (61%) have considered leaving the country (emigrating) – comprising the youth (72% of 18 to 35 year-olds) and 68% of people who are currently unemployed.
Ghana, like many other emerging markets and developing economies, must deal with the mega-trends (transitions) of Climate Change, Digitalisation and AI, Gender & Inequity, Conflict & Crisis and their impact on the labour market. The foregoing accentuates a clear and urgent need to link macro-economic policies, sectoral policies and labour market policies to promote a job-rich, human-centred economic recovery – as well as just ecological, technological and societal transitions to a more sustainable and inclusive economy.
We submit that a New Economic Framework anchored on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will significantly contribute to promote inclusive, sustainable, resilient economic and social development for Ghana, underpinned by systemic and structural transformations that advance social-gender equity, decent work and sustainable growth.
This Framework needs to underscore the nexus between economics (especially macroeconomic policies), social justice, employment (policy), environment and climate change while addressing the structural labour market challenges. It must recognise that sustained wellbeing depends on balanced attention to securing equitable prosperity and opportunity, a healthy planet, economic progress and democratic governance.
This Framework must necessarily engender a job-rich economic transformation as outlined in the ILO Guidelines for a Just Transition toward environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all.
There is a growing global recognition that the Just (Green) Transition portends great potential to deliver decent jobs in this age of transitions. Experts have projected that the transition to low carbon, climate resilient economies and societies has far-reaching implications for the labour market and can generate, if well managed, job opportunities – especially for the teeming youthful population of Africa. For instance, the ILO estimates that 100 million jobs can be created by 2030 through ensuring a green transition that fully takes into account its social dimensions.
According to the ILO, implementing the Paris Agreement on climate change can generate 25 million new jobs by 2030 while the renewable energy sector alone is estimated to employ 43 million people by 2050.
Conservative estimates by the ILO indicate that the circular economy could bring 6-7 million new jobs globally, while an additional 20 million jobs could be generated worldwide if investment in Nature-based Solutions were tripled by 2030.
While most of these jobs are being created in China, Europe and America, there is an opportunity for Ghana to harness these job openings for its teeming youth through targetted policy and regulatory interventions in these sectors.
Ghana as a party to the 2015 Paris Agreement has made a solemn commitment to reduce its carbon footprint in production and consumption systems – in keeping with the global pledge to keep global temperature well below 1.5oC by 2050.
Through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Ghana has developed 19 policy actions in 10 priority areas to achieve by 2030. The 19 policy actions translate into 13 adaptation and 34 mitigation programmes of action which should accelerate a sustainable energy transition, build resilient economies and societies, enhance early warning and disaster risk management, enhance landscape restoration, ensure responsible production and consumption, foster social inclusion focusing on youth and women and provide smart, safe communities.
These measures are expected to create over one million decent and green jobs by 2030, among other key benefits, if well-managed.
Ghana’s energy transition in the energy sector specially targets production and consumption reforms in the electricity and petroleum sub-sectors that result in less pollution of the environment. One of such important reforms in the electricity sub-sector is to raise renewable energy penetration to a minimum of 10 percent grid-electricity by 2030.
This policy scenario targets electricity generation through additional investments in solar PV, wind turbines, biogas and small hydro (i.e., less than 100MWh capacity). It is estimated that new jobs in the solar electricity sub-industry will rise to about 25% from baseline levels by 2025.
Employment creation in related sectors such as construction, wholesale, retail and transport are expected, with some 15,000 net jobs to be created. An analysis of the Solar PV, Biofuels and Cooling Efficiency Policy scenario estimates that close to 100,000 additional jobs may be created by 2030.
The foregoing accentuates the critical place of policy coherence across sectors and developing the required human capital with requisite skills to take advantage of opportunities in the green transition.
There is no denying that the ecological transition will affect economies, societies and lives both positively and negatively (loss of jobs and incomes) – and this underscores the imperative of a just transition. A just transition prioritises equity, social justice and protection while connecting the climate agenda to the decent work and social protection agenda.
Demand-driven Skills Development and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) are fundamental requirements of the Just Transition, especially for Ghana. The green economy gives rise to new occupations and emerging trades which require new skills.
There is a need to anticipate these new skills, develop the relevant curricula, train trainers and embark on rigorous skilling, reskilling and upskilling of our workforce in order to take advantage of the opportunities in that economy.
However, to succeed with this, there is an urgent need to prioritise policy reform and integration across sectors and consciously link economic policies – especially macroeconomic policies – with employment policies. There is also need for institutional and systemic collaboration to advance ideals of the new economic framework, while an increase of funding and investment in labour and skills development as well as social protection will ensure a human-centred just transition.
An in-depth analysis of the skills gap in Ghana would highlight areas for intervention – including upgrading qualifications, standards and curricula, professional development for educators and capacity strengthening of TVET institutions toward greening the TVET sector to address the skills mismatch. There is a need to provide needed infrastructure (functional workshops) for TVET institutions across the country to aid the delivery of this critical service.
There is also a need to increase investments and dedicate funding sources to the TVET sector while changing the narrative around TVET education through linkages with industry and deliberate nationwide sensitisation campaigns.
There must be targetted investment in social and business resilience through macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary) to create a conducive business environment where there is easy access to credit for business development and expansion, healthy competition and improved business integrity – and a corresponding investment in labour, social protection, inclusion, resilience and sustainability.
We emphasise here that social dialogue is the most effective medium for advancing this green transition and guaranteeing social protection. There is an onerous duty to leave no one behind in this transition, hence actors from Government, Social Partners (Workers and Employers), Private Sector and Industry Captains, Civil Society Organisations and Development Organisations have a critical role to play through social dialogue mechanisms in advancing this job-rich economic transformation.
We recognise that some great work has already commenced in these areas and we encourage deliberate, targetted and coordinated measures to consolidate those gains made and scale-up interventions in these areas, paying heed to the green (and circular) economy and the critical place of skills development and TVET.
About the Author:
Gideon is an ardent advocate of the SDGs, especially on Climate Action and a Just Transition to an environmentally sustainable society for all. He has specific interests in Environmental Law and Policy, Green Jobs and Skills Development, Market Systems Development, Youth, Gender and Inclusion.
He currently works with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) to promote integrated action on green jobs and skills development in Ghana.
Email: [email protected])
