By Simeone AZOSKA
As the world speculates about the contours of Donald J. Trump’s second-term foreign policy, sub-Saharan Africa finds itself at a crossroads. Trump’s hallmark ‘America First’ doctrine – marked by isolationism, selective engagement and transactional diplomacy – presents unique challenges and opportunities for African leaders.
With potential shifts in U.S. priorities, African nations must strategically position themselves to navigate this evolving global order while leveraging transactional diplomacy for economic and security gains.
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Peripheral Priority?
Historically, sub-Saharan Africa has occupied a secondary or tertiary position in U.S. foreign policy. Under Trump’s first term Africa was largely absent from major policy discussions, with the administration focusing instead on China, the Middle East and Europe (Akpan, 2020). Initiatives such as the Prosper Africa programme, aimed at enhancing U.S.-Africa trade, were overshadowed by more pressing global crises.
In a second Trump term, Africa is expected to remain a peripheral priority. Unlike China, Africa does not present immediate strategic or economic threats to U.S. interests. However, Africa’s natural resources, emerging markets and pivotal role in global security – especially concerning counterterrorism – offer entry points for engagement.
Trump’s administration may approach Africa primarily through a transactional lens, focusing on nations that offer tangible benefits to U.S. economic or security objectives (Adeyemi, 2024).
Biden’s Legacy in Africa
Biden’s administration made strides in elevating Africa’s geopolitical importance. His climate policies and emphasis on public health (e.g., PEPFAR) provided critical resources to the continent. Initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) aimed to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative by offering sustainable financing for African infrastructure projects.
In contrast, Trump’s first term reduced USAID funding and merged key development programmes, signalling less commitment to Africa’s long-term development (Akpan, 2020). A second term may see further cuts, affecting sectors Biden sought to strengthen such as renewable energy, education and public health systems.
Biden vs Trump: Contrasting Foreign Policy Approaches
Joe Biden’s administration emphasised multilateralism, democracy promotion and global partnerships. His policies aimed to restore U.S. credibility in international institutions, with programmes like the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit reaffirming America’s commitment to African nations (Baker, 2023).
Biden’s US$55billion pledge to Africa over three years focused on infrastructure, green energy and youth engagement, signalling a long-term investment in the continent’s future (White House, 2023).
In contrast, Trump’s foreign policy is characterised by transactional diplomacy, prioritising bilateral agreements where tangible benefits for the U.S. are clear. Biden’s administration aimed to bolster Africa’s economic and democratic institutions, while Trump’s approach focuses on immediate returns such as resource extraction and counterterrorism support.
Biden’s emphasis on climate change further differentiates his tenure from Trump’s, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement during his first term and downplayed environmental policies. For Sub-Saharan Africa, Biden’s climate agenda presented opportunities in green financing and renewable energy partnerships, initiatives unlikely to feature prominently in a second Trump term.
The Hallmarks of Trump’s Second-Term Foreign Policy
Analysts predict that Trump’s second term will intensify his administration’s key foreign policy features, including unpredictability, hawkishness toward Iran, scepticism of multilateralism and a transactional approach to diplomacy (Smith, 2024).
His focus on NATO burden-sharing, reduced funding for Ukraine and potential disengagement from Taiwan could reshape global alliances (Jackson, 2023). In contrast to interventionist strategies of the Obama and Bush administrations – and even of his first term – Trump’s second term is likely to double down on prioritising domestic gains over international obligations (Johnson, 2023).
Central to this approach is Trump’s transactional diplomacy, where foreign relations are viewed as quid pro quo engagements rather than strategic alliances. Nations that align with U.S. interests, particularly in trade and defence, are likely to receive attention while others risk neglect.
Contradictions in the ‘America First’ doctrine
Trump’s second-term foreign policy underscores the contradictions inherent in his ‘America First’ agenda. While prioritising domestic issues, Trump’s approach undermines traditional alliances and multilateral cooperation which historically benefitted U.S. global influence. For instance, his scepticism toward NATO weakens collective security frameworks while his focus on bilateral trade wars disrupts global supply chains (Friedman, 2024).
This shift represents a significant departure from Obama’s multilateralism and even from Trump’s own first-term engagement, which included the US-Africa Business Summit and Power Africa initiatives. Such inconsistencies create uncertainty for African nations seeking long-term partnerships with the U.S.
Trump’s Second-Term Priorities and Implications for Africa
Under Trump, the U.S. is likely to deprioritise long-term engagement with Africa in favour of addressing more immediate concerns in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Analysts anticipate:
Unpredictability in NATO and Ukraine Policy: Trump’s scepticism toward NATO and potential withdrawal of Ukraine funding could destabilise transatlantic relations, indirectly affecting Africa’s security dynamics (Smith, 2024).
Selective Hawkishness: While focusing on Iran and trade wars with China, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain a tertiary priority unless directly aligned with U.S. economic or security interests (Jackson, 2023).
Continued Isolationism: Trump’s ‘America First’ stance may reduce funding for USAID programmes and global health initiatives, potentially jeopardising Africa’s progress in areas like public health and education.
Strategic Responses for sub-Saharan Africa
In adapting to Trump’s transactional diplomacy, African leaders must recalibrate their foreign policy strategies. Here are key recommendations:
Leverage Economic Partnerships
Ghana and other sub-Saharan nations must position themselves as indispensable trade partners. By capitalising on Trump’s focus on bilateral trade deals, countries can negotiate favourable terms that boost exports, attract investments and create jobs. For instance, Ghana’s African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) membership can serve as a platform to offer the U.S. access to Africa’s integrated market (Boateng, 2023).
Security Cooperation
With Trump’s focus on counterterrorism, nations like Nigeria and Ghana can strengthen ties with the U.S. by positioning themselves as pivotal players in combatting extremism. Enhanced cooperation through intelligence-sharing, joint military training and counter-insurgency programmes could attract U.S. security investments.
Invest in Strategic Branding
African nations must redefine their global image as investment hubs. Ghana in particular can build on its ‘Year of Return’ initiative to attract U.S. interest in tourism and cultural exchanges, aligning with Trump’s focus on economic gains.
Embrace Multilateral Leverage
While Trump prefers bilateral deals, African leaders should engage strategically with other global powers such as China and the EU to counterbalance U.S. unpredictability. By diversifying alliances, Africa can maintain leverage in negotiations with the U.S.
Ghana as a Regional Leader
Ghana is uniquely positioned to emerge as a leader in adapting to Trump’s foreign policy. Its stable democracy, growing economy and proactive diplomacy offer a solid foundation for engagement. To capitalise on this, Ghana should:
- Expand Trade Relations: Utilise its status as a regional hub to negotiate bilateral agreements with the U.S. that align with Trump’s focus on trade.
- Champion Regional Security: Lead ECOWAS in addressing security challenges such as terrorism and human trafficking to attract U.S. support.
- Strengthen Diaspora Ties: Engage the African-American community, leveraging cultural diplomacy to enhance Ghana-U.S. relations.
Opportunities in Transactional Diplomacy
Trump’s transactional approach offers unique opportunities for African nations willing to align their objectives with U.S. interests. Unlike traditional diplomacy, which emphasises long-term partnerships, transactional diplomacy rewards immediate and tangible outcomes.
By focusing on areas where mutual benefits align – such as trade, counterterrorism and natural resources – African nations can extract significant gains from U.S. engagement.
However, this approach requires careful navigation to avoid dependency or exploitation. African leaders must negotiate from a position of strength, ensuring that agreements benefit their nations’ long-term development goals.
Seizing the Moment
Trump’s second term will undoubtedly reshape global diplomacy. For sub-Saharan Africa, this presents both challenges and opportunities. While the region may remain a peripheral priority for the U.S., nations like Ghana can proactively engage with Trump’s administration to secure economic and security gains.
By embracing strategic partnerships, leveraging transactional diplomacy and asserting regional leadership, African nations can turn Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy into a catalyst for growth. In doing so, they not only adapt to a changing global order but also position themselves as indispensable players in shaping the future of international relations.
References
- Akpan, T. (2020). S.-Africa Relations Under Trump’s First Term: Missed Opportunities. African Studies Review.
- Baker, P. (2023). Biden’s Africa Legacy: Renewing Ties in a Post-Trump Era. The New York Times.
- Boateng, K. (2023). AfCFTA and U.S. Trade Opportunities: Leveraging Africa’s Integrated Market. Ghana Economic Forum Journal.
- Friedman, T. (2024). The End of Multilateralism? Trump’s Disruption of Global Alliances. The Atlantic.
- Jackson, R. (2023). America First: Implications for NATO and Global Security. Foreign Policy.
- Smith, J. (2024). Trump’s Second Term: What to Expect from U.S. Foreign Policy. Brookings Institution.
- White House (2023). Fact Sheet: Biden’s Commitments to Africa at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit.
