By Benjamin NATHAN OTCHERE
In my previous publication, I discussed the impact of SSNIT’s decision to shift pre-retiree funds toward the fixed income market. This write-up focused on the equity market and the broader economy. I believe this subject is a two-sided issue: one side concerns the equity market and economy, while the other pertains to the fixed income market and economy.
In this publication, I will examine the impact of SSNIT’s decision to tilt their portfolio towards fixed income investments. This decision aligns with SSNIT’s objectives of providing income stability and ensuring financial sustainability. While my earlier discussion primarily highlighted how this shift affects the equity market and the overall economy, it is equally important to consider how a large-scale allocation to fixed-income securities influences the fixed-income market itself. The following are expositions of the impact.
Increased demand for bonds
The shift towards fixed-income securities by a major institution like SSNIT is expected to increase demand for bonds in the Ghanaian market. This increased demand can push up bond prices and, in response, lower yields due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields (Boateng & Afrifa, 2021). This scenario is akin to the U.S. Treasury market, where heightened demand for Treasuries in low-interest-rate environments has led to price increases and subsequently lower yields.
For Ghana, this situation could benefit issuers, including the government and corporations, as they would experience reduced borrowing costs. However, the prolonged effect of lower yields may discourage traditional retail investors who rely on higher yields for income, potentially leading to lower participation from smaller investors (Boateng & Afrifa, 2021; Antwi-Asare, 2022).
Interest rate environment and monetary policy
The anticipated increase in demand for fixed-income securities has the potential to flatten the yield curve, signaling market anticipation of slower economic growth or lower future interest rates. In some developed economies, central banks have responded to similar scenarios by adjusting monetary policies to stabilize markets.
For example, the Federal Reserve in the United States has used quantitative easing to manage long-term interest rates in periods of high bond demand, aiming to balance inflation and growth objectives (Mensah, 2022).
If the Ghanaian market experiences a sharp decline in yields due to SSNIT’s demand, the Bank of Ghana may need to consider similar strategies, such as monetary tightening or open market operations, to manage liquidity, mitigate the effects of inflation, and stabilize investor confidence (Antwi-Asare, 2022).
Impact on corporate financing
For corporations, the potential for lower yields presents a double-edged sword. Lower interest rates can make corporate debt more affordable, creating an opportunity for companies to raise capital at reduced costs, which may foster business growth. For instance, during the low-interest-rate era following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S.
companies leveraged low borrowing costs to expand operations and invest in innovation. However, sustained low yields can have a detrimental effect on the bond market by reducing the incentive for savings, thus limiting the available capital in the future (Ackah, 2021). Consequently, if yields fall too low in Ghana, it could dampen investor enthusiasm, reduce savings and investing, and ultimately restrict the capital pool for corporate financing.
Inflationary pressures
An influx of investment capital into fixed-income markets can lead to inflationary pressures by creating an environment where too much capital chases a limited supply of bonds, causing bond prices to surge and yields to decline. Such conditions can force some investors to seek higher returns in alternative investments, increasing liquidity in the economy and potentially contributing to inflation.
This dynamic resembles the asset inflation witnessed in the Eurozone during periods of aggressive bond-buying by institutions (Antwi-Asare, 2022). In Ghana, increased liquidity from low-yield bonds might also lead to an overheated economy, where inflation outpaces economic growth. Therefore, SSNIT’s decision may inadvertently influence inflation rates, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic adjustments to prevent destabilization of purchasing power (Mensah, 2022).
Diversification challenges and portfolio risk
A significant concern with SSNIT’s fixed-income-focused strategy is the issue of diversification. A high reliance on bonds exposes the fund to concentration risk, particularly as fixed-income assets are highly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates and inflation. To mitigate this risk, SSNIT could consider diversifying across different asset classes in good proportion.
It can even look at possibly going into international markets; this could be advanced or emerging markets, each of which behaves differently under various market conditions (Owusu, 2020). For example, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has incorporated diversified bonds from both local and global markets to manage exposure to specific market risks. Such a model could offer SSNIT a way to balance stability with growth, allowing it to provide reliable returns while minimizing exposure to single-sector risk (Boateng & Afrifa, 2021).
SSNIT’s increased allocation to fixed-income investments will undoubtedly leave a substantial mark on the Ghanaian fixed-income market, bringing lower yields and more affordable borrowing costs but also challenging the market with diversification and inflationary pressures. For SSNIT, balancing its commitment to stable income with a diversified approach is essential to ensure long-term sustainability.
By learning from global fixed-income markets, SSNIT can implement strategies that accommodate its unique goals while reducing risk. Through diligent market monitoring, investment in high-quality bonds, inflation protection, and collaboration with policymakers and other stakeholders, SSNIT can contribute to a resilient and balanced financial ecosystem. This approach not only enhances SSNIT’s stability but also fosters a more robust fixed-income market that supports Ghana’s economic development and financial security.
The writer is a Certified Financial Planner/Advisor
