By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU & Ebenezer Chike Adjei NJOKU
Inflation appears to be firmly back on the ascendancy, with its rate rising to 23 percent in November 2024 – up from 22.1 percent in October, according to fresh data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).
The increase reflects persistent price pressures on both food and non-food items, with inflation now at its highest point since mid-year, and suggests that the year-end figure is likely to be a notable variance from the 15 to 19 percent official range projections at the beginning of 2024.
On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 2.6 percent between October and November – a marked increase from the previous month’s 0.9 percent, as cost-of-living pressures facing households and businesses climbed.
Food inflation stood at 22.8 percent year-on-year (YoY), remaining a key driver of the overall rate. Staple commodities such as grains, vegetables and oils saw notable price increases – further straining household budgets. Non-food inflation followed closely at 21.5 percent, driven by rising costs in utilities, healthcare and transportation.
Month-on-month (MoM) trends showed a sharper rise in non-food inflation at 3.8 percent, compared to a 1.4 percent increase in food prices.
This comes after the monetary authority – the Bank of Ghana (BoG) -decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 27 percent in the recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting, given the recent inflationary trend.
According to the central bank, inflation projections show a slightly elevated profile driven by high and unstable food prices, pass-through of previous exchange rate pressures, fuel prices and utility tariff adjustments.
“The price increases in food items have been steep over the course of the year and – together with a fast-paced depreciating currency earlier on in the year – have altered the inflation trajectory and stalled the disinflation process,” the BoG Monetary Policy Committee said in a press statement announcing its decision.
“At the time of the last MPC meeting, average inflation forecast a year ahead – which stood at 19 percent – has increased slightly to 20.1 percent at this forecast round. The horizon for inflation to get back within the target band of 6-10 percent has slightly shifted forward to Q4 2025 from the original forecast period of Q3 2025,” it added.
From a trend perspective, November’s inflation marks a resurgence following a brief mid-year respite. After peaking at 25.8 percent in March, annual inflation eased to 20.4 percent by August before gradually climbing again in the latter part of the year.
Monthly inflation, which measures price changes between consecutive months, has fluctuated significantly. November’s 2.6 percent monthly rise is among the sharpest increases recorded this year, as yuletide and election-related inflationary pressures increased in the final quarter.
Locally produced goods continued to drive inflation more than imports, with YoY inflation for local items reaching 24.6 percent in November compared to 16.3 percent for imported goods. Analysts have previously cited domestic production costs, supply chain inefficiencies and seasonal demand fluctuations as the primary factors compounding inflationary pressures.
The inflationary impact was uneven across regions, with the Upper East Region recording the highest YoY inflation rate at 44.9 percent according to the GSS data.
By contrast, the Eastern Region posted the lowest rate at 18.7 percent.
