By Kestér Kenn KLOMEGÂH
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) ultimately lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid 30 years ago, according to the election results. South Africa held election May 29, amid heightened accusations of deep-seated corruption, rising youth unemployment, energy crisis and other multiple obstacles negatively impacting on internal economic developments and growth in the country considered as an economic power in Africa.
The Southern African Development Community Electoral Observation Mission (SEOM) have described the election and voting held as “orderly, peaceful and free atmosphere” in South Africa. In a statement, former Zambian Vice President and SEOM Head, Enock Kavindele, said some 84 observers were deployed to all nine provinces and they engaged with stakeholders from all parts of society on the elections.
“The mission observed that the country was calm and peaceful in the pre-election, election-day, and the immediate post-election period. I must emphasize that there was a very conducive environment for the elections, where only a few isolated incidences of political violence were reported. It was the concern of stakeholders that the incidences prevented special voting and final election campaign events in the areas. Apart from these isolated incidences, observers deployed across the country witnessed peaceful, well-planned, and highly attended political rallies,” Enock Kavindele said.
Election Results
These are the latest verified results from South Africa’s national election, released by the Electoral Commission of South Africa. The electoral commission data showed the ANC had secured 42.6% of the vote. The main opposition, the Democratic Alliance, had 25.8%, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) 10.8% and the leftwing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) stood at 9.6%.
The partial results may not be an accurate indication of the final outcome because counting from rural areas and townships where the ANC has historically had more support tends to take longer. Population density in the different voting districts can also be a variable.
Under the constitution, the new parliament must convene within 14 days of final results being declared. And parliament’s first act must be to elect the country’s president. It therefore means there will be up to two weeks of negotiations to form a government because the ruling party, after unacceptably losing its three-decade-old, has fallen short of an absolute parliamentary majority.
South Africa went to the polls on May 29, the results which has open a new dawn for its population estimated at 62 million. The country has passed through diverse difficulties and challenges at various stages of its democratic development since attaining political independence. Several analysts and researchers told this article author that South Africa, considered as an economic power in Africa, is suffering from stagnating economy.
Professor Sergiu Mișcoiu at the Faculty of European Studies, Babes-Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca (Romania), where he serves as a Director of the Centre for International Cooperation and as Director of the Centre for African Studies, wrote post-election comment that “The lost of majority by the ANC is an unprecedented turn in South African politics. But it should also be seen as a normal democratic development, as alternances in power are needed in a healthy democracy.
Now, Jacob Zuma’s new populist party, uMkhonto weSizwe Party, eager to settle its accounts with the ANC, will most probably be in the strange position of ‘jolly joker’ for the formation of a coalition, either with the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), or with the… ANC, based this time on a new and disadvantageous deal with the formerly dominant party.”
Diverse implications
There are explicit indications or signals across the board that the ANC may forge a quick coalition with former South African President Jacob Zuma’s party. A coalition deal with a like-minded rival particularly, Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, having won enough support in national elections to help erase the long-held majority of the ruling African National Congress. The party, uMkhonto weSizwe, was launched about half a year ago, and the trends show it is emerging as one of South Africa’s biggest political.
“What we see unfolding in South Africa is by all accounts a political development of massive importance, coming at a critical time when the country is faced with decay, chaos and failure. The elections came at a critical time when despair was running high. The outcome probably saved the country in the nick of time from facing the worst possible scenario one can think of. The massive and unequivocal popular rejection of ANC rule reflects mood and despair of a nation which simply had enough,” Professor Gerrit Olivier at the Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria, and South Africa’s former Ambassador to the Russian Federation, told this author in an interview from Johannesburg.
Significantly, South Africa to embarked on a new paradigm: shifting from majoritarianism to multiparty democracy. The ANC monopoly has finally ended in disgrace. Majoritarian autocracy made way for participatory democracy. After 30 years the ANC has lost its erstwhile charisma, legitimacy and supremacy. Importantly, however was a peaceful transition. A rare phenomenon in Africa no doubt, although adding the caveat that sustainable stability would be hard to maintain in a deeply divided society like SA without a strong government, according to Professor Olivier.
In the discussion, Professor Olivier offered more analysis thus: South Africans may be right to say ‘good riddance’. But it could also be a case of ‘apres moi le deluge’ as a French royalty once remarked. It is, therefore, doubtful whether the demise of the ANC misruled majoritarianism would lead to a new utopia instead of further decay and un-governmentalism. Uncertainty will no doubt prevail, the country could indeed be rendered more vulnerable and exploitable because of its deep divisions and discrepancies. Therefore, a government that can effectively govern will be the sine qua non of a stable political future. The new politics of coalition-formation, horse trading and resulting decision-making paralysis (a la Ramaphosa), would no doubt bring into play national, decay and destabilization and should be avoided at all costs.
The country suffers from dearth of political leadership and might well be facing a new phase of painful political accommodation. This is our major dilemma. The ANC’s legitimacy was largely based on red herrings like anti-apartheid-ism, race politics, the ‘struggle’, and colonialism, but now lost its erstwhile currency among the majority of voters and a new narrative as how to get a better life for all, is what the Anti-ANC majority yearn for. This is a heightened challenge.
Foreign Policy
Researchers acknowledge that there is also uncertain times for South Africa’s foreign policy as country heads for coalition government after the polls, ANC without securing simple majority votes. The researchers also pointed to the assertiveness of Ramaphosa’s administration over its consistent steps taken to negotiate peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and in addition to that, filed a genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
In his article to The Conversation, Bhaso Ndzendze, an Associate Professor (International Relations), University of Johannesburg, wrote that aside numerous existing domestic questions, South Africa’s foreign policy would be one of the bargaining points as the ANC engages various potential coalition partners – the Democratic Alliance (DA), the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
From his analysis, the ANC seems faced with three broad choices: a Democratic Alliance that is pro-west, an Economic Freedom Fighters party that is more revisionist than the ANC itself, and an uMkhonto weSizwe Party that largely reflects the ANC’s own foreign policy posture but vehemently opposes the ANC’s current leader and has contributed to the ANC’s fall below 50%. Ramaphosa and Zuma have conflicting political perceptions and differences in directions over the South Africa’s economic development. Much of the ANC’s current foreign policy (including the entry into BRICS) was crafted under Jacob Zuma as president (2009-2018). South Africa raised its status by joining BRICS informal association in 2010.
Future uncertainty
Uncertainty still remains over the future of ANC. There ia also an apparent sources to campaign for its resuscitation but would definitely be brought to its initial years with massive support due to multiple factors. Corruption is number one, and that is followed by deliberate failure to address internal problems. Complicating matters is the fact that the Ramaphosa’s administration is frequently globe-throttling on international stages for prestigous status while rising crime rate and majority of the population wallowing in abject poverty.
The ANC has won every election since 1994, when Nelson Mandela led the party to power following the end of the apartheid regime. Cyril Ramaphosa was responsible for ousting Zuma as South Africa’s leader in 2018, however, and there remains considerable animosity between the two (ANC and uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) political heavyweights.
The African National Congress (ANC) is a political party in South Africa. It originated as a liberation movement known for its opposition to apartheid and has governed the country since 1994, when the first post-apartheid election resulted in Nelson Mandela being elected as President of South Africa.
South Africa has a mixed economy, and the most industrialized and technologically advanced in Africa. It is the second largest economy in Africa after Nigeria. It is a member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the African Union (AU), BRICS and a number of other international organizations. With its neighbouring countries of Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe; and to the east and northeast by Mozambique and Eswatini, South Africa is located in the southernmost part of Africa.
