According to emerging signals in S&P Global Ratings’ latest assessment, government may be quietly exploring ways to loosen some terms of its US$3billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme even as it publicly affirms full commitment to the reforms.
While the finance ministry has denied any renegotiation talks, S&P’s nuanced language suggests that the new administration could seek programme flexibility.
The finance minister Cassiel Ato Forson in mid-April pushed back on claims of renegotiation, saying government is “fully committed to implementing this programme”.
However, the S&P report suggests the post-election economic reality may warrant recalibration.
The agency acknowledges that the Mahama-led administration inherited “large expenditure arrears” and faces ongoing pressure to address high inflation, public discontent and limited fiscal room – all of which could motivate a search for greater leeway within the IMF’s framework.
S&P’s decision to raise the nation’s foreign currency credit rating to CCC+ from selective default (SD) followed what it called “recent steps” to finalise commercial debt restructuring. S&P’s updated outlook was cautiously optimistic.
Indeed, fiscal risks remain. The country posted significant arrears in 2024 and S&P expects fiscal consolidation to be more gradual than government anticipates.
Interest payments, though down from prior years, still consume a quarter of government revenue and inflation at 21.2 percent remains far above the central bank’s target range.
According to S&P, the debt trajectory is improving – with net general government debt forecast to drop from 71.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 47.4 percent by 2028.
Nonetheless, the ratings agency warned that fiscal underperformance or tightening financing conditions could trigger a downgrade within the next 12 to 18 months.
The IMF programme is scheduled to end in May 2026. The likely focus will be on easing restrictions related to social spending and adjusting reform timelines as the country works toward concluding its programme.
With over a year remaining, government has not ruled out adjustments. Mr. Forson stated that going forward, whatever decision government makes will be communicated early enough.
