By Harmony Seyram ATTISE
In recent months, the global trading system has come under renewed scrutiny. From escalating tariffs to rising protectionist policies, many are asking the once unthinkable: Is this the end of free trade as we know it?
The signals are increasingly alarming, especially for developing economies and small states whose participation in global markets hinges on the stability of international trade rules.
As the world shifts, the implications for Africa—and the urgency for self-determined frameworks like AfCFTA—have never been more pressing.
A fraying global framework – Where is the WTO?
At the heart of the world’s trade architecture is the World Trade Organization (WTO). Founded in 1995, the WTO was established to provide a rules-based system that promotes open, fair, and predictable trade.
For decades, it served as a bulwark against unilateralism, ensuring that even the smallest countries had recourse in trade disputes.
However, recent developments suggest the WTO’s authority is being increasingly sidelined, particularly by major economies.
The United States, under the Trump administration, disabled the WTO’s Appellate Body by blocking the appointment of new judges—a move that effectively neutralized the organization’s capacity to adjudicate disputes.
Though the Biden administration has taken some steps toward re-engagement, the deeper issue remains: when global powers ignore the rules, the system falters.
The U.S. shift – from advocate to adversary of open trade?
The recent U.S. tariff hikes under former President Trump—targeting imports from countries previously favored under trade preference programs—raise difficult questions.
Once a principal architect of global free trade, the United States now appears to embrace a more aggressive, self-focused trade posture. “Reciprocity” and “fair trade” have replaced “open markets” in U.S. trade rhetoric, suggesting a fundamental shift in priorities.
Developing nations like Ghana, long beneficiaries under programs such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), now face uncertainty. If AGOA no longer protects duty-free access to the U.S. market, what alternatives remain?
AGOA and AfCFTA – Diminished utility or new opportunity?
AGOA, enacted in 2000, was designed to boost U.S.-Africa trade by offering eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets.
While AGOA has delivered modest benefits, its implementation has faced challenges, including compliance demands and limited diversification in trade exports. With recent U.S. trade actions, the question looms: has AGOA been quietly pushed aside?
Enter the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—a bold African-led initiative aimed at building intra-African trade and positioning the continent as a global trading bloc. AfCFTA represents a strategic counterweight to external shocks, offering African countries the chance to reduce reliance on traditional markets and invest in continental value chains.
However, implementation remains sluggish. Non-tariff barriers, infrastructure gaps, and a lack of policy coherence among member states risk stalling AfCFTA’s full potential.
Still, the framework is relevant now more than ever, not only as a tool for resilience but also as a platform for collective competitiveness.
Is the next global recession near?
The IMF and World Bank have both forecast slower global growth in 2025 and beyond. Amid inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and rising geopolitical tensions, trade is no longer the robust driver of global GDP it once was.
History offers a warning. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, passed by the U.S., escalated a trade war that deepened the Great Depression and set the stage for the Second World War.
While circumstances today differ, the resurgence of protectionism in a fragile global economy is eerily familiar. Could escalating tariffs and fractured alliances once again lead the world toward a deeper crisis?
Is global competitiveness failing?
Competitiveness—especially for small and emerging economies—is shaped by market access, innovation, and fair rules. But in a climate where larger nations dictate terms unilaterally, the playing field is rapidly becoming uneven.
Many African businesses, already strained by access to capital and technology gaps, now face a double jeopardy: external tariffs and internal policy inertia. The result?
A loss in global market share, reduced investor confidence, and rising youth unemployment. The rules that once protected smaller economies are under siege, and unless reformed or reinforced, the concept of global competitiveness itself may become a privilege of the few, rather than a right of all.
More shocks to come?
Beyond tariffs and trade wars, the future holds more uncertainty. Climate-related disruptions, the weaponization of technology, cyber threats, and shifting political alliances are all likely to add further strain to global trade.
For Africa, this means that resilience and foresight are no longer optional—they are existential. Local production, supply chain diversification, and strategic policymaking are the only ways to prepare for the storms ahead.
Is global trade at a breaking point?
The short answer: not entirely—but dangerously close. Free trade is not yet dead, but it is on life support, awaiting collective political will to resuscitate it. Multilateralism, once the lifeblood of global trade, is being tested as never before.
For African economies and small states, the question is not whether free trade still exists, but whether it still serves their interests. The choice before them is clear: wait for the system to correct itself, or build a new architecture from within.
Frameworks like AfCFTA, backed by strong regional institutions and forward-thinking policy, offer a glimpse into what a more equitable future could look like. But these tools require urgent activation, funding, and implementation to make the promise of global competitiveness a reality.
Africa’s wake-up call
This is not the end of free trade—but it is the end of complacency. For Africa, this moment demands a bold reassessment of its global economic strategy. It demands homegrown policy instruments, greater intra-African cooperation, and a renewed focus on industrialization and innovation.
If anything, these disruptions reaffirm the relevance and urgency of the A4A Policy Framework—a blueprint that recognizes that the only way forward is to be both adaptive and assertive. The rules of the game are changing. It is now up to Africa to write some of its own.
>>>the writer is Executive Director, Ambidexterity for Africa
