By: JP FABRI
The global trade order is being redefined—again. The recent wave of U.S. tariffs on key imports, marks a deepening of the world’s most consequential trade conflict.
With retaliatory measures already taking shape, the spectre of a long-term economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies is no longer theoretical.
We are witnessing the acceleration of a new era of protectionism—one that is reshaping the flows of goods, capital, and geopolitical influence.
For Africa, often peripheral in previous rounds of global economic realignment, this disruption presents not only risks but also a significant opportunity.
The continent has long been locked out of the higher rungs of global value chains, constrained by its historic dependence on raw commodity exports and limited manufacturing base.
But the unravelling of globalisation as we know it—and the scramble for new trade routes, manufacturing partners, and strategic alliances—opens a window for Africa to reposition itself.
In a world where efficiency is being traded for resilience, and long, fragile supply chains are being replaced with regional or strategic ones, Africa’s geographic proximity, abundant labour, and untapped consumer markets are gaining new relevance. But to seize this moment, Africa must be bold, coordinated, and strategic in how it aligns itself with the emerging global trade blocs.
The global shift is not simply about tariffs. It is about ideology. The liberal economic consensus that drove decades of expanding trade, cross-border investment, and integration has given way to a doctrine of economic nationalism.
From Washington to Beijing, governments are intervening directly in markets, using tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policy as tools of power projection. Trade is no longer just about economics—it is geopolitics by other means.
In this volatile context, Africa must prioritise trade diplomacy and economic diversification. The continent’s historic overdependence on a narrow range of exports—chiefly raw materials—has made it acutely vulnerable to external shocks.
But the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), if effectively implemented, can serve as the foundation for a new development model, one that is regionally integrated, value-added, and globally competitive.
Yet regional integration alone is not enough. Africa must also build strategic trade relationships with key global blocs, especially the European Union and China.
Both have deep economic footprints across the continent, but both also find themselves caught in the crosshairs of U.S. trade policy. For Europe, Africa represents a partner in energy transition, supply chain diversification, and migration management.
For China, Africa is a critical source of minerals and a growing consumer base. In a decoupling world, Africa can offer both blocs a neutral, collaborative trade partner—if it plays its cards right.
Deepening trade ties with the EU should be a top priority. Europe remains Africa’s largest trading partner, and the Global Gateway Initiative, though slow in execution, provides a framework for infrastructure and digital cooperation.
But these partnerships must evolve beyond aid and asymmetry. Africa must demand greater market access, technology transfer, and co-investment in industrialisation and green manufacturing. Trade agreements must be rebalanced to support African development, not merely regulate it.
Similarly, engagement with China must move beyond extractives. Africa must leverage its mineral wealth—especially critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and graphite—into processing and production hubs, not just mines.
Strategic trade pacts focused on value chain localisation, infrastructure-for-access swaps, and joint ventures in technology and logistics should be explored. China’s experience in scaling industrial ecosystems could help African countries develop the manufacturing base they need—if negotiated smartly.
At the same time, Africa should not ignore emerging powers. India, the Gulf states, Turkey, and Southeast Asia are increasingly active in African trade and investment.
Diversifying trade partners will be essential in a polarising world. But success will depend on African unity, not fragmented bilateralism. A continent-wide trade strategy, aligned with AfCFTA objectives, can give Africa the collective leverage it has often lacked.
To capitalise on these shifting dynamics, Africa must also invest in its own trade infrastructure and regulatory capacity. Non-tariff barriers, poor logistics, and border inefficiencies continue to undermine intra-African trade and diminish competitiveness.
If Africa wants to attract the manufacturers and investors looking to leave China or diversify away from Western markets, it must offer a seamless, predictable, and scalable business environment. That means upgrading ports, standardising customs, digitising border procedures, and ensuring reliable energy and transport networks.
It also means investing in human capital. The promise of a low-cost, young workforce will only translate into a competitive advantage if it is matched by skills development, vocational training, and innovation ecosystems.
Trade-led development requires not just exports but the capacity to produce complex goods, integrate into value chains, and absorb new technologies.
Perhaps most importantly, Africa must define its own trade interests. Too often, it has responded to global shifts rather than proactively shaping them. The continent must articulate a clear, unified position on what it wants from its trade partners—not just what it will accept.
That includes pushing for reform at the World Trade Organisation, demanding equity in climate trade policies like the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, and insisting on fair treatment in global tax and investment regimes.
The current trade war between the U.S. and China may be framed as a bilateral standoff, but its ripple effects are global. Africa should not wait for the dust to settle. It should step forward with confidence and offer the world an alternative: a region that is open, dynamic, and ready to trade—on its own terms.
The moment is ripe. As old alliances fracture and new ones emerge, Africa has the chance to no longer be a pawn in global trade politics, but a player—one that can shape outcomes, set standards, and chart a path that reflects its own priorities. This is not about choosing sides. It is about choosing strategy. And the time to choose is now.
>>>the writer is an applied economist and an Africa-focused entrepreneur. He can be reached via [email protected]
