By JP FABRI
The global economy is undergoing a major realignment, with supply chains shifting in response to rising protectionism, economic nationalism, and geopolitical tensions.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has accelerated this shift, as he moves aggressively to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, European exports, and other foreign imports.
In this new trade landscape, Africa faces both a challenge and an opportunity—either remain a marginal player in global supply chains or position itself as a key manufacturing and trade hub.
For decades, Africa has primarily functioned as a supplier of raw materials, exporting commodities that fuel the economies of more industrialised nations. This model has left the continent vulnerable to external shocks, price volatility, and the decisions of major economic powers like the U.S., China, and the EU. But recent trends —particularly Trump’s tariffs, supply chain diversification, and global efforts to reduce reliance on China—suggest that Africa could be well-positioned to benefit from the new trade dynamics if the right strategies are implemented.
Trump’s new wave of tariffs has already sent shockwaves across global markets. His administration is imposing tariffs across a number of goods from various countries. The U.S. is now openly prioritising domestic production over globalisation, a sharp shift that is forcing multinational companies to rethink where they manufacture their goods.
One immediate consequence of Trump’s tariff policies is the accelerated decoupling of the U.S. and China in global trade. American companies are now actively seeking alternative manufacturing bases outside of China, and while Southeast Asian economies—like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia—are absorbing much of this shift, Africa has so far been left out of the equation.
The challenge for African nations is to position themselves as viable alternatives for global supply chains. Africa benefits from low labour costs, abundant natural resources, and expanding trade integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), yet investors remain hesitant due to infrastructure gaps, inconsistent policies, and weak industrial capacity. If Africa does not act swiftly, it risks missing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to become a manufacturing hub for global industries looking to escape trade tensions and rising tariffs elsewhere.
Africa has several structural advantages that could allow it to integrate into global supply chains—if it addresses its key weaknesses. First, its youthful workforce presents a major opportunity. By 2050, Africa’s working-age population will surpass 1 billion, making it an ideal destination for labour-intensive manufacturing. However, without serious investment in vocational training and technical skills, this demographic advantage will not translate into economic gains.
Second, Africa is home to many of the world’s critical minerals, including cobalt, lithium, and rare earth metals, which are essential for electric vehicle (EV) production, battery storage, and clean energy infrastructure. The U.S. and the EU are aggressively seeking to diversify their supply chains away from China, yet Africa remains largely stuck in a raw material export model, shipping unprocessed minerals abroad rather than developing local refining and processing industries.
Trump’s trade policies present a double-edged sword for Africa. On one hand, U.S. tariffs on China and Europe create openings for Africa to gain preferential access to American markets. Many African countries already enjoy duty-free access to the U.S. through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). If African leaders strategically negotiate trade deals that promote industrialisation, the continent could attract significant investment in light manufacturing, agribusiness, and energy-related industries.
On the other hand, Africa risks being sidelined if it fails to act decisively. Protectionism in the U.S. and EU could lead to more restrictive trade policies overall, making it harder for African firms to integrate into Western markets. Moreover, if African economies do not move beyond exporting raw materials, they will continue to lose out on the high-value manufacturing opportunities now emerging due to shifting global supply chains.
To seize this moment, African nations must focus on five key areas.
First, they need aggressive infrastructure development. High logistics costs, unreliable electricity, and congested ports remain major barriers to Africa’s industrial competitiveness. Governments must work with development banks, foreign investors, and regional trade blocs to build the infrastructure necessary to support large-scale manufacturing.
Second, regulatory and policy stability is critical. Investors seek predictability, and African economies must provide long-term industrial strategies that remain consistent across political transitions. Inconsistent policies, sudden trade restrictions, and excessive red tape discourage businesses from committing to Africa as a production hub.
Third, Africa must strengthen regional integration through AfCFTA. Trade barriers within Africa remain high, making it easier for many companies to import from China or Europe rather than sourcing from neighbouring African countries. A truly integrated African market would allow manufacturers to set up regional supply chains, reducing dependency on volatile global markets.
Fourth, investment in skills development and labour productivity must be a priority. Africa cannot compete with Southeast Asia or Latin America in manufacturing unless its workforce is equipped for advanced industrial jobs. Expanding technical education, vocational training, and digital skills programs is essential to ensuring that Africa is ready for the industries of the future.
Finally, governments and the private sector must rethink Africa’s role in strategic supply chains, particularly in automotive production, pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, and electronics manufacturing. Instead of simply exporting raw materials, Africa must attract investments that build local processing industries, keeping more value within the continent.
The global economy is shifting, and Africa cannot afford to remain a passive player. Trump’s tariffs and America’s push for economic nationalism will reshape global trade flows, and if African leaders act strategically, they could position the continent as an alternative production hub for industries fleeing trade wars. But this window of opportunity will not remain open forever.
If Africa fails to act decisively, it will remain a raw material exporter while other regions—such as Southeast Asia and Latin America—capture the wealth of high-value production. If it builds the right infrastructure, strengthens governance, and commits to long-term industrial policies, Africa can become a key player in global supply chains.
Africa’s role in the world economy is being rewritten in real time. The question is whether African leaders, businesses, and policymakers will seize this moment to drive real industrial transformation or allow the continent to once again be shaped by external forces. The choice is in Africa’s hands.
>>>the writer is an applied economist and an Africa-focused entrepreneur. He can be reached via [email protected]
