The economic growth forecast revision to a 4 percent growth rate for the country at end-2024, up from its previous 3.1 percent estimate, is encouraging and indicates recovery is on course.
The updated projection was presented by Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director-IMF African Department, at a media briefing on Friday, October 25 during the October 2024 IMF/ World Bank Meetings in Washington DC, USA.
It therefore reflects Ghana’s gradual recovery following a period of economic instability and recent reform efforts.
Mr. Selassie noted that the initial 3.1 percent forecast for the year had been submitted based on data available by mid-August, adhering to IMF reporting deadlines for all member-countries. However, a subsequent IMF mission to Accra provided updated data – allowing the IMF to adjust the growth outlook to 4 percent.
He explained that this change was primarily driven by government’s focus on economic reforms intended to stabilise and strengthen the country’s macroeconomic framework.
While crediting the country’s comprehensive reforms for the improved growth outlook, he emphasised a need for continued focus on balanced development spending and debt sustainability.
“Going forward, it’s about maintaining modest levels of fiscal deficits – especially during an election cycle – and avoiding the pitfalls Ghana has faced during election cycles in the past,” he said.
The revised outlook comes amid challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa. The region’s economic growth is expected to remain steady at 3.6 percent this year – similar to last year, with a modest increase projected for next year.
Consequently, the IMF’s outlook for Ghana reflects cautious optimism. However, the Director expressed confidence in Ghana’s potential to maintain a stable economic trajectory.
“There remains a significant amount of debt that needs to be agreed on – consistent with parameters of the programme – with non-eurobond commercial creditors,” he stated, underscoring the importance of securing favourable terms for the country.
Achieving long-term growth requires consistent efforts to balance fiscal responsibility with developmental goals, particularly as the country approaches its next election cycle.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam disclosed that the IMF Board is scheduled to meet on December 2, 2024 to discuss Ghana’s Third Programme Review.
