As Ghana readies itself for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, it finds itself in the midst of a broader African political landscape marked by heightened uncertainty and potential risks. The unfolding political dynamics across the continent reveal numerous major African countries, including Ghana, undergoing presidential and legislative elections. This collective electoral activity contributes to an atmosphere of political tension and potential instability, prompting a critical examination of the specific challenges and risks that Ghana faces as it approaches its electoral process.
Ghana stands at a pivotal juncture in its political history, set against the backdrop of a region grappling with uncertainties and potential upheavals. The interconnected nature of political events unfolding across Africa amplifies the significance of the 2024 presidential election in Ghana, making it a focal point for political actors, citizens, and the international community. The heightened risks underscore the delicate balance that the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) must navigate, particularly given the prevailing socio-economic challenges. The commitment to Dr. Bawumia’s candidacy acknowledges the formidable challenge posed by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and its candidate, John Mahama.
Moreover, the looming risk of instability in Ghana is exacerbated by concerns of potential electoral malpractices, a shared concern within the sub-region. As the nation prepares for its electoral process, stakeholders, encompassing political parties, citizens, and the international community, must actively engage to ensure free and fair electoral processes. A pivotal role lies with the Electoral Commission, which must be seen as fair to all parties to instil confidence not only in political entities but also in the general public. This introduction sets the stage for a comprehensive examination of the intricate challenges and collaborative efforts needed to fortify Ghana’s political environment, emphasizing the imperative of transparent, impartial, and inclusive electoral processes.
Election Cycles and Political Risk in Africa
The inherent elevation of political risk during election cycles becomes evident as 2024 approaches, promising significant political transitions across the continent. Ghana, Algeria, Rwanda, Botswana, Mauritius, Tunisia, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa are scheduled to hold elections. While incumbent regimes are anticipated to prevail, the heightened risk of reduced parliamentary majorities and challenging governing and economic conditions looms. The prospect of a transfer of power, driven by anti-incumbency sentiment and discontent with current governance, poses the potential for civil unrest in some states.
Sahel’s Security Outlook
Moving beyond the electoral landscape, the security outlook across the Sahel remains ominous for 2024. Nations such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Sudan, and others grapple with ongoing security challenges and armed conflicts. The scheduled presidential elections in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad compound the volatile mix of politics, social grievances, and conflict. Concerns arise over the influence of military juntas in propping up presidential candidates, raising questions about the democratic process in these nations.
Recent Political Coups in West and Central Africa
Tied to the unfolding political dynamics, West and Central Africa witness a series of coup attempts, revealing pervasive challenges to stability and democracy in the region. The recent power grab in Gabon serves as the latest example, where senior military officers seized control following President Ali Bongo’s third-term victory declaration—marking the eighth coup in the area since 2020. Despite efforts to shed the region’s “coup belt” reputation, this resurgence of military takeovers is fueled by persistent issues of insecurity and corruption, casting a shadow over democratic processes.
Niger, a key ally in the region, experienced a coup in July 2023, with the presidential guard detaining President Mohamed Bazoum, citing deteriorating security and governance concerns. The incident raised broader regional concerns as ECOWAS engaged in diplomatic efforts and prepared for potential troop deployment to restore constitutional order.
Burkina Faso faced a coup in January 2022, attributing it to President Roch Kabore’s failure to contain Islamist militant violence. Despite promises to restore security, a second coup in September 2022 exposed escalating challenges.
The upheaval in Guinea in September 2021 saw Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousting President Alpha Conde over term limit circumvention. Doumbouya pledged a democratic transition within three years, but ECOWAS rejected the proposed timeline, imposing sanctions.
Chad, following President Idriss Deby’s death in April 2021, witnessed the army taking power and dissolving parliament for stability. General Mahamat Idriss Deby, the late president’s son, was appointed interim president for an 18-month transition to elections.
In Mali, a series of coups unfolded, initiated by a group of colonels led by Assimi Goita in August 2020, resulting in the ousting of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. A second coup in May 2021 saw Goita assume the presidency, despite international pressure for a civilian-led interim government. Mali is scheduled for a presidential election in February 2024 to return to constitutional rule, highlighting the continued tumultuous political landscape.
This string of coup attempts underscores the broader political risks facing African nations, including Ghana, as they approach crucial election cycles in 2024. The interconnected nature of these events necessitates vigilance in monitoring developments across the continent to anticipate potential repercussions on regional stability and governance.
Ghana’s Political Landscape
Within this challenging African context, Ghana’s political landscape is set to witness a pivotal moment in its history with the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia’s victory in the NPP Presidential flagbearership race signifies the potential for a shift in power dynamics. The current president’s staunch commitment to supporting Bawumia breaks the eight-year cycle in Ghana’s political history since 1992, indicating a continuity of the ruling New Patriotic Party’s governance and setting the stage for a highly contested electoral battle.
Despite the political fervour, all polls consistently point towards the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, John Mahama, as the favoured contender for the presidency. This prevailing sentiment poses a significant challenge for the ruling party, suggesting a possible transfer of power to the opposition.
Underlying issues, including economic crises, national debt defaults, declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and inadequate public services, contribute to heightened political risk in Ghana. These socio-economic challenges resonate deeply with the electorate, potentially fuelling a desire for change and favouring the opposition’s bid for power.
As the NPP rallies behind Dr. Bawumia, the party must confront the reality that public sentiment, as reflected in polls, leans towards the NDC and its candidate, John Mahama. The widespread discontent with prevailing economic conditions and governance may act as a catalyst for a significant political realignment, further increasing the likelihood of a transfer of power.
Electoral malpractices and Risk of Instability
The looming risk of instability in Ghana, especially in the face of potential electoral malpractices, raises significant concerns as the nation prepares for its 2024 presidential election. Recent incidents in neighbouring countries underscore the potential consequences of electoral irregularities, with the memories of the 2020 general elections, which led to loss of lives, serving as a stark reminder.
Instances of contested election outcomes in the sub-region have resulted in political unrest, instability, and even coup d’etat. The suspicion in public sentiments points to concerns that the ruling government may deploy various forces, including the police, military, and immigration, to suppress votes in opposition strongholds. Simultaneously, there are allegations of vote buying and over-voting in regions traditionally supportive of the ruling party, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
Should Ghana face similar challenges, including allegations of vote manipulation, voter suppression, or disputes over election results, the consequences could be far-reaching. Such incidents could disrupt the delicate balance within the political landscape, potentially sparking protests, civil unrest, and eroding confidence in the democratic process. Safeguarding the integrity of the electoral system becomes imperative to ensure the stability and legitimacy of Ghana’s political environment in the aftermath of the upcoming election. As the nation navigates these potential challenges, it becomes paramount to uphold the principles of a free, fair, and transparent electoral process to fortify the foundations of democracy.
Conclusion
As Ghana approaches its presidential election amidst a broader African political landscape characterized by uncertainty, social unrest, and security challenges, the potential political risks cannot be ignored. The interconnected nature of political events across the continent underscores the importance of closely monitoring the developments in Ghana and other African nations throughout 2024. The outcome of these elections will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of governance and stability in the region for years to come.
This comprehensive examination highlights the imperative of transparent, impartial, and inclusive electoral processes to fortify Ghana’s political environment. The outcome of the election will not only shape the nation’s future trajectory but will also reverberate beyond its borders, influencing the broader regional landscape for years to come. The collective efforts of all stakeholders, both within Ghana and on the international stage, are essential in navigating the intricate challenges and ensuring a democratic, stable, and legitimate electoral process.
The writer is a Political Security Analyst
