The economy in 2025: From intensive care to physiotherapy?

By Joe JACKSON

If Ghana’s economy were a person, it would have been wheeled into the ER in early 2024: panting, dizzy from inflation, and unable to keep food (prices) down. By January 2025, a new economic “medical team” took over. Six months later, the Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review is out: and the charts look like test results after a tough recovery regimen.

So, how is the patient doing? Let’s break it down.

Diagnosis – Ghana’s economic symptoms

Back in late 2024, the vitals weren’t looking good:

• Inflation was running a fever at 23.8percent.
• The cedi had collapsed like a tired lung.
• Debt was bloated stomach at over GH¢726 billion.
• The IMF plan had been abandoned halfway through the “treatment”.

It wasn’t a mild cold. This required intensive care.

The treatment plan

The new team prescribed a mix of:

• Fiscal painkillers (spending controls),
• Debt diet pills (restructuring and interest savings),
• Export supplements (GoldBod and FX Auction),
• And, of course, the IMF came back as a consulting doctor.

Early signs of recovery

According to the Review, the patient is stable and breathing on its own:

• Inflation dropped to 13.7percent by June 2025  which was the lowest in four years.
• The cedi pulled a miracle (yay!) appreciating 42.6percent against the dollar.
• Reserves bulked up to US$11.12 billion like as if the macho muscles were back.
• The debt trimmed down to GH¢613 billion, with a better cholesterol (debt-to-GDP) ratio of 43.8percent.

Feeding the people and the engine

Like a careful diabetic, even while watching its sugar (spending), the government kept up the feeding program:

• 1.5 million households received LEAP support.
• GH¢300 million covered tuition for 100,000+ first-year tertiary students.
• Trainee allowances paid; school feeding funded.

Add in the GH¢13.8 billion earmarked for roads, and it’s clear the patient is doing light cardio.

Remaining risks (a.k.a. side effects)

Some side effects persist:

• Customs revenue is underperforming with smuggling allegedly the culprit.
• Wage pressures from pre-2025 hiring are swelling.
• Dollar-priced contracts are stressing the Cedi, and the new directives are now demanding cedi-only pricing (which looks suspiciously unimplementable).

Fast Facts

All the numbers are trending in the right direction.

Final Take

The economy isn’t ready to run a marathon yet—but it’s out of bed and walking. The next six months will show if Ghana can move from rehab to real recovery—or if another relapse looms.

Diagnosis? “Cautious optimism,” with daily monitoring.

>>>the writer is the CEO of Dalex Finance and a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Economists Ghana